Until you predict the rain with 100% accuracy, Charles Moore is an idiot

A conservative’s typical attempt to pretend that climate change is a man-made conspiracy would be to latch on to some bit of minutiae and make it definitive. Alan Caruba, among a great many other idiots, has been claiming that the Earth is now cooling. This is not remotely true:

NOAA global temperature

How can he be so stupid? Well, he’s a conservative. But here is Alan’s specific problem:

SkepticsvRealists_500

The Carubas seize on a small trend and then swear it proves global warming is entirely a hoax. This is typical of the denialists.

What’s no longer typical of them is the wielding of an analogy so broadly stupid as to be a howler. In “The game is up for climate change believers,” Charles Moore sets himself apart with this opening:

Most of us pay some attention to the weather forecast. If it says it will rain in your area tomorrow, it probably will. But if it says the same for a month, let alone a year, later, it is much less likely to be right.

Someone tells you the weather will be the same every day for a month, that’s somehow strange? Well, if you say so.

There are too many imponderables. The theory of global warming is a gigantic weather forecast for a century or more.

Excuse me? Ha, no.

The climate is not the weather. One is large and planetary, the other is small and local. Even knowing exactly what the larger trends are, you still can’t predict when it will rain. I suspect Chuck actually knows this…

However interesting the scientific inquiries involved, therefore, it can have almost no value as a prediction. Yet it is as a prediction that global warming (or, as we are now ordered to call it in the face of a stubbornly parky 21st century, “global weirding”) has captured the political and bureaucratic elites…

It’s ‘Global Warming.’ And the tundras are what’s becoming ‘parky.’ For the sake of arguments, let’s say you have a pair of dice and you’ve swapped the ones with tens. You therefore predict that you’ll be rolling bigger numbers from now on, but how can you be sure? Can you really predict when a ’20’ will come up? Do the bureaucrats think they’re psychics? What a stupid asshole. The trends:

Warming_Indicators_500

I suspect you’re a pretty smart person. Take a good long while and look at the pretty graphs and pictures, then tell me. Will it rain in Seattle tomorrow? C’mon, how could you not know? This is what Charles thinks of you and your SCIENCE, mister.

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